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February 22, 2023
Natural Gas ended yesterday's session at $1.97 and lost 10.1 cents today, leading it to trade below the $2 level for the first time in 2 years.
United States FOMC Meeting Minutes is next today at 19:00 UTC.
Amid the market gloom, United States Existing Home Sales (Jan) released yesterday at 15:00 UTC with a figure of 4 million, while the previous figure was 4 million. United States 2-Year Note Auction released yesterday at 18:00 UTC with a figure of 4.673, while the previous figure was 4.139. United States Existing Home Sales released earlier showed a marked improvement to -0.7% from the preceding data of -2.2%, but fell short of the 2% figure forecast by a consensus of market analysts.
Trend-focused traders would be interested to note that the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicator is below -100, meaning the market price is unusually low and below its rolling moving average. Technical analysis indicates that a new, strong downtrend could be forthcoming with short positions favored. According to momentum evaluation, the Relative Strength Index indicates NYMEX Natural Gas is in an oversold condition, which could precipitate a reversal and set up a new bullish phase. According to asset volatility analysis, Bollinger Bands® shows an indication of recovery: the lower band is at $2.05, a low enough level to, generally, suggest that NYMEX Gas is trading below its fair value. Technical chart analysis shows NYMEX Gas could begin to recover as it approaches significant support, now 2 cents away from $2. Dipping below could be an indication that further losses are ahead.
With market volatility ebbing, the current technical outlook indicates US Natural Gas will remain range-bound for the immediate future.
In the meantime, negative performances are also seen in other Energy as Crude Oil slumps 1.58% to trade around $75.15. Heating Oil stumbles 1.45% to trade around $2.75. Brent Crude Oil is trading around $81.91 (down $1.14).
Looking ahead, ongoing depreciation may be prolonged as United States Crude Oil Inventories projected to decline to 1.17 million while previous data was 16.28 million; data will be released tomorrow at 16:00 UTC. United States Initial Jobless Claims projected to come out at 200,000 — worse than previous data of 194,000; data will be released tomorrow at 13:30 UTC.
Furthermore, United States GDP is expected tomorrow at 13:30 UTC. United States FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released today at 19:00 UTC.
The commodity has been trending lower for about 2 months. US Natural Gas hit a significant low of $2.02 around a day ago, but has since recovered 2.62%.
