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April 06, 2023
While WTI crude oil is on a 6 day uptrend Today's session might suggest a slow down — without a clear-cut direction, WTI crude oil is trading around $80.52 per barrel and ranging between $80.35 and $80.53.
Uncertainty around US crude oil is reflected by published market data as United States Crude Oil Inventories released earlier showed a marked improvement to -3.74 million from the preceding data of -7.49 million, but fell short of the -2.33 million figure forecast by a consensus of market analysts. United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) came out at 51.2, while a consensus of analysts was expecting 54.5. United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) released yesterday at 12:15 UTC with a figure of 145,000, while the previous figure was 261,000.
A "bearish engulfing" pattern — a scenario when a larger red candle engulfs a smaller green candle, at the top of a prevailing uptrend. Typically this is a signal of lower prices in the near term. US crude oil's upper Bollinger Band® is at $82.37, suggesting that a downward move may follow. On the other hand, note that WTI crude is approaching key support, around 86 cents away from $79.66. Dipping below could indicate further losses are ahead while a failure to break below this level is likely to be seen positively by market bulls.
Despite the market lacking direction, technical chart analysis strongly suggests West Texas crude is positioned for a downward move in the near term.
Moreover, tomorrow at 12:30 UTC data for United States Non Farm Payrolls will be released, with an expected decline to 240,000 from the preceding figure of 311,000. United States Initial Jobless Claims expected to decline to 200,000 while its preceding data was 198,000, data will be available today at 12:30 UTC. United States Unemployment Rate figure is projected at 3.6. It previously stood at 3.6; data will be released tomorrow at 12:30 UTC.
West Texas crude has fallen back around 33.97% over the past 9 months, from a notable high of $122.09.
